Will Cannabis Legalization Pass in California in 2016?
Polls suggest so. In 2010, the last marijuana legalization initiative not he ballot in California -- Proposition 19 -- failed 53.5% to 46.5%. That was a mid-term election with lower turnout than is expected in this presidential election year. In addition, since 2010, polling suggests that attitudes in California has shifted in favor of legalization. Among others, a March 2015 poll from PPIC found that 55% of likely California voters favored marijuana legalization. This is is consistent with nationwide polls, including findings by Pew and Gallup of a substantial nationwide shift in favor of legalization between 2010 and 2015, and other polls, such as a Yougov finding of majority nationwide support for legalization in January 2016. The most recent national poll, conducted in February 2016 on behalf of the Associated Press, showed 61% in favor nationally. The overall trend is clear.